Phrase by 'Edgar Fiedler'
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For economist the real world is often a special case.
Author: Edgar Fiedler - American EconomistWorld , Special , Real , Real World
If a proposal doesn't prove out as expected when we run it, sometimes we change the model.
Author: Edgar Fiedler - American EconomistSometimes , Run , Change , Prove
Forecasting is a maddening occupation. It is always fascinating and exciting and rewarding. yet it is also regularly exasperating and infuriating, occasionally even deranging.
Author: Edgar Fiedler - American EconomistEven , Always , Exciting , Occupation
The general public still expects a lot more forecasting accuracy than any of us can deliver.
Author: Edgar Fiedler - American EconomistMore , Us , Still , Accuracy
There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the clouds. The real problem, as the old saw puts it, is that the future lies ahead.
Author: Edgar Fiedler - American EconomistWords , Future , Success , Clouds
Experience shows that a recession is never the result of just a few large industries dragging the economy down while the others continue to expand.
Author: Edgar Fiedler - American EconomistNever , Experience , Result , Down
At some risk of oversimplification, I suggest that the usual reason a business cycle turns into a monster is an overdose of government policy.
Author: Edgar Fiedler - American EconomistBusiness , Risk , Reason , Government
In a sense, there are as many forecasting methods as there are forecasters. But I would argue that most projections are derived from two major methods: macro-econometric models and eclectic judgment.
Author: Edgar Fiedler - American EconomistTwo , Sense , Most , Judgment
No one can escape the iron rule that once you make a forecast, you know you're going to be wrong; you just don't know when and in which direction!
Author: Edgar Fiedler - American EconomistYou , Know , Escape , Direction
We're not very good at forecasting, and we don't know how to measure the impact of economic policy.
Author: Edgar Fiedler - American EconomistKnow , Good , Measure , Economic
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